USDA Revises Global Crop Estimates: Soybean Stocks Down, Corn Record in US
The USDA has released its latest report, revising global crop estimates for 2025. Soybean stocks and US exports have been lowered, while soybean planted area in the US has increased. Corn production is forecast to decrease in Europe but remain record-high in the US. Meanwhile, rapeseed prices have surged, and wheat production is expected to reach record levels in the EU and the Black Sea region.
The USDA has reduced its estimates for global soybean stocks and US soybean exports, while increasing the projected US soybean planted area for 2025. This comes as rapeseed prices have soared, with the November 2025 contract closing at 473 euros/t, up 6.50 euros/t from the previous day and 11.75 euros/t from the start of the week.
European analysts estimate EU soft wheat production at 136.1 million tons, a record high, with some considering the possibility of the largest wheat harvest ever in the EU. The USDA report indicates a larger-than-expected wheat harvest, particularly in Europe and the Black Sea region, with EU soft wheat production estimated at 140.1 million tons. This follows a significant increase in wheat harvests in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and Australia. Wheat prices, however, have fallen by 50 euros per ton since the beginning of the year and remain under pressure.
The USDA expects a record corn harvest in the United States, with the largest harvested area since 1933. The largest wheat exporters expected by USDA for 2025 include the European Union, Russia, and the United States, with EU export expectations for 2024/25 at 29 million tons.
The USDA's report indicates a mixed outlook for global crops in 2025, with increased production in some areas and decreased in others. While soybean and corn production in the US remain strong, wheat production is expected to reach record levels in the EU and the Black Sea region. However, wheat prices continue to face downward pressure.
